“Yushchenko – Tymoshenko – Russia” – Love Triangle?

Round-table discussion with such name was held by Institute of National Strategy. Political scientists, researchers, and persons concerned have discussed actual issue of Ukraine-Russia relationship. Here are their opinions on the situation.Stanislav Belkovskiy, Institute of National Strategy founder:



- Dare hope I know the particulars of Russian authority motivation, their view on the state of play in Ukraine rather well. First, let us turn to history and see Vladimir Putin’s pathway to power. It is of very importance to understand to whole situation.



In 1990, Putin was adjectively downgraded (from cushy lob of director of Soviet Cultural Center in Dresden to assistant in international ties of Leningrad State University pro-rector). Putin has easily entered into fundamentally anti-Soviet team of St. Petersburg mayor Anatoliy Sobchak. During two years he changed from aide into the second executive of the city – first deputy mayor, controlling official communications of the second Russian capital administration as well as most of delicate finance affairs. Just then businessman Putin has started.



The things he struggle for today are his personal and his close business partners interests, particularly in Ukraine. There are 23 installations in Ukraine, possessed by Russian businessmen. Do not think Moscow is concerned with status of Russian language or the Black Sea Fleet. Partial support Tymoshenko does not mean Putin stakes on alternate force – he just is not sure enough Yushchenko is strong and can control situation all over the country. So he wants to arrange with the force, which could secure against economic engagements violence.



I believe the Kremlin motivation understanding is the key to building relations desirable for Ukraine. It is obvious that issue of property and money guarantee is foremost for the Kremlin. We can play on it using virtual threat. Creation of would-be menace and settlement of the crisis is powerful method of influence upon this day Kremlin, driven rather by money and business, not politics and geopolitics. On this point Ukraine has an advantage, which can use both power in the person of Yushchenko and the Cabinet, and opposition presented by Tymoshenko. But it is crucial not to overestimate negotiation issue, or attempt to make use of good relationship with Russia for own home policy problems can back-fire.





Viktor Nebozhenko, Social service “Ukrainian barometer” director



- In my opinion, it is wring to talk about triangle Yushchenko – Tymoshenko – Russia. The other people were mother missile for Tymoshenko’s ‘rocket to future’ – former Prime Minister Lazarenko and actual President Yushchenko. Unfortunately, she failed to get free of them. This, in essence, is ‘love’ triangle. Regarding Putin, he grasp effectively he do not fall in any triangle, and Tymoshenko does not seem to know what to do with it.



There is a reverse process in Russia-Ukraine relationship, in Russia influence upon home policy of Ukraine. Increasing of the Kremlin activity concerning Ukraine is nothing but result of U.S. game of drawing the Kremlin into complicated and, as always, very foggy Ukrainian affairs. It is of very importance for USA who will be president of Russia, not Ukrainian election in 2006. If the Kremlin enters geopolitical projects in Ukraine, they will get serious troubles at one time with fit of Caucasian war and outbreak of dirt information about Putin. It will be a great mistake for Russia to see Ukrainian politicians’ visit as an opportunity to make an influence on Ukraine. Although for last 300 years it became classic to go to Russia to complain against somebody, hand over, then after a kind of casting fortified politician got national scale, came back to Ukraine – and in a couple of years came to a bad end. Looking to Moscow our politicians have to remember history.